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The test of the 144.21 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point into the market. As a result, the pair moved up about 80 points, reaching the target level of 145.01, where I had planned to sell on a rebound. However, I was unable to do so as the technical picture shifted for the second half of the day, focusing on important data related to the U.S. labor market. The ADP employment report for September is one of the first key indicators in a series of reports this week. This data could strengthen the dollar, especially given the current complex geopolitical situation. A strong report will support taking long positions in the dollar and short positions in the yen. Pay attention to the speeches by Fed members Michelle Bowman and Thomas Barkin, as a wait-and-see stance by policymakers could lead to further appreciation of the dollar. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the execution of Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 145.24 (green line on the chart) with a target of 146.22 (thicker green line on the chart). At 146.22, I will exit the market and open a sell position in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point pullback. The pair is likely to rise today only after strong U.S. economic data. It is important to ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark before buying.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 144.63 level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and prompt an upward reversal. A rise toward the 145.24 and 146.22 levels is expected.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout of the 144.63 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 143.65. At that point, I will exit the market and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point rebound. Selling pressure on the pair is expected to return if U.S. statistics are weak. It is important to ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark before selling.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 145.24 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the 144.63 and 143.65 levels is expected.
Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade large volumes.
Additionally, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is generally an unprofitable strategy for intraday traders.
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