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The first test of the price at 1.1024 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's bearish potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of this price happened when the MACD was already in the oversold area, allowing for the implementation of Scenario No. 2 for buying. As a result, the pair moved up about 15 points, and that was the end of it. Important U.S. unemployment data is ahead; a decline in this rate, along with strong growth in non-farm employment and an increase in employment in the private sector, will lead to the strengthening of the dollar and a fall in risk assets. In the case of weak indicators, the euro will rise. Regarding my intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenario No. 1, despite the MACD indicators, as I expect a strong surge in market volatility.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1040 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the level of 1.1080. At point 1.1080, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement of the euro today can only be expected in the case of weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1021 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's bearish potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1040 and 1.1080 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I will sell the euro after the price reaches the level of 1.1021 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0993, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the case of strong statistics from the U.S. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from there.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1040 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's bullish potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1021 and 1.0993 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market must be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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