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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound
The first test of the 1.3085 level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pound's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. No further tests of levels occurred. The absence of UK statistics shifted traders' focus to US data. In the second half of the day, important data on the U.S. Consumer Price Index for September will be released. If the index rises, the U.S. dollar is likely to strengthen, pushing the British pound even lower. Attention should also be given to the comments from FOMC members Lisa D. Cook, Thomas Barkin, and John Williams, as their views could influence market expectations for monetary policy, with interviews scheduled for later in the day. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to proceed with Scenario #1 while taking into account the MACD readings, as I expect a significant directional movement.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the entry point reaches around 1.3091 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.3128 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3128, I will exit the buy trades and open sell trades in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pound today can be expected only if U.S. inflation data shows a decline. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and has just begun to rise before buying.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3064 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the resistance levels of 1.3091 and 1.3128 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound upon a break below the 1.3064 level (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a quick decline in the pair. The primary target for sellers will be the 1.3032 level, where I will exit the sell trades and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Sellers are likely to emerge if there is a sharp rise in inflation. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and has just begun its decline before selling.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3091 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the next support levels of 1.3064 and 1.3032 can be expected.
Chart Overview:
Note: Beginner traders in the forex market should exercise extreme caution when making decisions to enter the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price movements. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit. This risk increases if you do not use proper money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is generally considered a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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