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Analysis of trades and tips for trading the Japanese yen
The test of the 149.39 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's further upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test, which occurred shortly after, could have been considered a potential scenario #2 for selling. However, as you can see on the chart, a strong downward movement never materialized. In the second half of the day, there is no fundamental data from the U.S., so we can only rely on speeches from FOMC members Neel Kashkari and Christopher Waller. Only distinctive statements, differing from those made by their colleagues last week, could spark significant market volatility. Otherwise, we are likely to continue slowly but steadily moving toward strengthening the U.S. dollar against the yen. For my intraday strategy, I plan to follow scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 149.52 (the green line on the chart) with a target to rise to 149.86 (thicker green line on the chart). At 149.86, I will exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points in the reverse direction from that level. I expect the pair to continue its upward trend today.It is important to note: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.34 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward risk and trigger an upward reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 149.52 and 149.86.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 149.34 (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 148.99, at which point I will exit my short positions and immediately open long positions (aiming for a movement of 20-25 points in the reverse direction from that level). If buyers fail to take action near the new weekly high, bearish pressure on the pair will return.It is important to note: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.52 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward movement and trigger a downward reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 149.34 and 148.99.
Beginner traders in the forex market must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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