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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 153.84 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pair. As a result, the decline exceeded 50 pips, reaching the target level of 153.33.
Today's news that Japanese households are cutting spending for the second consecutive month—due to inflation suppressing consumption—did not significantly pressure the Japanese yen. However, it does highlight the need for the Bank of Japan to take a cautious approach to raising interest rates soon, which can weigh on the national currency in the medium term. Household spending fell by 1.1% compared to the previous year, following a 1.9% drop the month before. Considering the pair's substantial downward correction, exercise caution with new short positions. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at 153.06 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 153.50 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.50, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, targeting a downward 30–35 pips movement. A further rise in the pair is likely, but buying is best on corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.70 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 153.06 and 153.50 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after the pair breaks below the 152.70 level (red line on the chart), which would trigger a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 152.17, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 pips upward movement. Selling pressure is unlikely to return in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started falling from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 153.06 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 152.70 and 152.17 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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