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The 151.52 level test in the second half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator dropping significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential, particularly during the U.S. holiday. For this reason, I chose not to sell the dollar. A second test of 151.52 occurred with the MACD in the oversold zone, leading to Scenario #2 for buying, but as seen on the chart, this did not yield significant results.
A sharp increase in Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (CPI) strengthened the Japanese yen and triggered a decline in the U.S. dollar. Tokyo's inflation, driven by higher energy and food prices, prompted market participants to revise their forecasts. Investors actively redirected funds into Japanese assets, strengthening the yen and putting additional pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Japan's unemployment rate remained stable, providing the BOJ with ample room for maneuver. Amid high inflation and steady employment, raising interest rates could be a logical step to curb price pressures. This decision might bolster confidence in Japan's economy and attract additional foreign investment. However, risks persist. Global financial markets remain volatile, and any changes in monetary policy could affect demand for Japanese exports. Investors are closely monitoring the BOJ's actions as well as economic indicators from other major economies, including the U.S. and EU.
With no clear signs of a reversal in the USD/JPY downtrend, the pair is likely to continue its decline. For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Important for Beginners
Forex traders should approach market entry with caution. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. When trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can lead to rapid losses, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
Successful trading requires a well-defined plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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