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On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued upward movement and tested the Ichimoku indicator lines. As a result, a reversal is quite likely today. However, remember that today's key events include the Federal Reserve meeting and the UK inflation report. Tomorrow, the Bank of England meeting is scheduled. Any of these events could trigger further growth for the British pound. Additionally, yesterday's wage report alerted the market and the central bank to the acceleration of wage growth. Wages in the UK are rising again, and at an increasing pace—bad news for the BoE and inflation, but not for the pound. This development guarantees that the BoE will not ease its monetary policy on Thursday.
We believe the market reacted yesterday not to the positive unemployment data (which were not particularly impressive) but to the near-zero probability of the BoE cutting interest rates on Thursday.
At the same time, the Fed may lower rates this evening. There are some doubts, but they are minor. The US dollar may also attempt a rally since the Fed is likely to pause rate cuts at the next meeting. Thus, the pound's position is far from secure. However, the UK inflation report, set to be released this morning, could push the pound even higher. If inflation turns out to be higher than forecast, it would make the possibility of a rate cut by the BoE essentially non-existent.
Trading signals on Tuesday were better ignored. The price approached a zone containing two levels and two lines. The initial bounce was decent and could have been executed with a short position. However, the price began "pushing through" all the lines and levels. Eventually, the pound consolidated above this zone, but movements on Wednesday and Thursday may be completely erratic. Technical analysis will likely take a back seat.
COT reports for the British pound show that the sentiment among commercial traders has been constantly shifting in recent years. The red and blue lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and, in most cases, hover near the zero mark. Recently, the price broke above the 1.3154 level and then fell to the trendline. We expect the price to consolidate below the trendline, confirming a shift to a downward trend.
According to the latest report on the British pound, the "non-commercial" group opened 4,700 BUY contracts and closed 300 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 7,700 contracts over the week. However, our overall expectations remain the same.
The fundamental background still does not justify long-term purchases of the British pound. The currency has significant potential to resume a global downtrend. While the trendline has prevented further declines, should the price fail to break below it, we might see another upward movement, potentially pushing the pound above the 1.3500 level. But what fundamental factors currently support such growth? The pound cannot rise indefinitely without a solid basis.
The GBP/USD pair maintains a generally bearish outlook on the hourly timeframe, and the correction may have already concluded. We still see no fundamental reason for the British pound to rise unless we consider the technical necessity for occasional corrections. The BoE and Fed meetings could negatively impact the dollar, but the dollar appears more confident in the medium term.
For December 18, the following key levels are identified: 1.2429–1.2445, 1.2516, 1.2605–1.2620, 1.2691–1.2701, 1.2796–1.2816, 1.2863, 1.2981–1.2987, and 1.3050. The Senkou Span B line (1.2713) and the Kijun-sen line (1.2697) could also serve as potential sources of signals. Setting a Stop Loss to break even if the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction is recommended. Remember that the Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be factored in when determining trading signals.
On Wednesday, the UK will release its inflation report, while the US will hold the Fed meeting. As a result, market movements throughout the day may be strong and even erratic, especially in the evening.
Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Key areas where price movement might stall. Not sources of trading signals.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the H4 timeframe to the hourly chart, serving as strong levels.
Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Points where the price has previously rebounded. They can serve as trading signal sources.
Yellow Lines: Trendlines, channels, or other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Reflects the net position size of each trader category.
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