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Both the euro and the pound are struggling to gain momentum, with each session setting new weekly lows. This indicates a strong likelihood that ongoing downward corrections could develop into something more significant. The minutes from yesterday's FOMC meeting only reinforced this outlook.
The FOMC minutes revealed that the committee sees no reason to rush into rate cuts. Before making any adjustments, the Fed wants to see concrete progress in managing inflation. Additionally, committee members indicated they are prepared to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period if necessary. This stance was not surprising to the markets, as the anticipation of a potential continuation of monetary easing has been factored in for some time. However, this situation still supports the dollar and will continue to do so until rates continue to decline. Investors will closely monitor macroeconomic data, trying to anticipate when the Federal Reserve might adjust its strategy.
Today, the German Producer Price Index (PPI) and consumer confidence data for the eurozone are expected to be released. These indicators are crucial for determining the direction of the euro. Traders closely monitor this data, as it significantly reflects inflation and the overall economic situation in the region. If the German PPI exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the euro. Conversely, disappointing data may lead to a decline in the value of the single currency.
The consumer confidence indicator reflects how optimistic households are about future economic conditions. When consumer confidence increases, it often leads to higher consumer spending, which can support economic growth and strengthen the euro. Conversely, a decline in confidence may result in lower spending, which can weaken the euro.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to employ the Mean Reversion strategy. However, if the data is significantly higher or lower than expected, it is better to use the Momentum strategy.
Buying on a breakout above 1.0441 could drive the euro higher toward 1.0475 and 1.0512.
Selling on a breakout below 1.0404 could lead to a decline toward 1.0364 and 1.0321.
Buying on a breakout above 1.2595 could push the pound toward 1.2630 and 1.2665.
Selling on a breakout below 1.2575 could trigger a drop toward 1.2550 and 1.2515.
Buying on a breakout above 150.40 could lead to a rally toward 150.70 and 151.05.
Selling on a breakout below 150.10 could drive the dollar lower toward 149.80 and 149.60.
I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.0442, followed by a return below this level.
I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.0414, followed by a return above this level.
I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.2599, followed by a return below this level.
I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.2573, followed by a return above this level.
I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6377, followed by a return below this level.
I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6349, followed by a return above this level.
I will look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4252, followed by a return below this level.
I will look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4209, followed by a return above this level.
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