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Fundamental Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.06 versus 84.70 early Wednesday) and yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 11.12% to 13.27; S&P 500 rose 0.78% to close at 1,998.3 overnight) on larger-than-expected 18% on-month increase in U.S. August new home sales to 504,000 for the biggest one-month jump since 1992 and the highest level of sales since May 2008 (versus forecast +3.4%). USD/JPY is also supported by ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy, demand from Japanese importers and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.565% versus 2.533% late Tuesday). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese export sales.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 108.45. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 108.20. The pivot point stands at 109.40. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.70 and the second target at 110.
Resistance levels:
109.70
110
110.35
Support levels:
108.45
108.20
107.65
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