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Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade with risks skewed to the downside after hitting almost a one-month low 116.07 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the flows to safe haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 4.47% to 21.48, S&P 500 closed 0.58% lower at 2,011.27 overnight) and worries about the pace of global economic growth after the World Bank lowered its forecasts for global expansion in 2015 to 3.0% from 3.4% and in 2016 to 3.3% from 3.5%. It is also noteworthy that copper prices plunged to their lowest in more than five years and that the U.S. retail sales fell 0.9% on-month in December (versus forecast -0.2%). USD/JPY is also weighed by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 92.08 versus 92.22 on early Wednesday) on weak U.S. retail sales and by 5.5% on-year drop in the U.S. December import price index (biggest annual decline since October 2009). In addition to it, 0.2% rise in the U.S. November business inventories (versus forecast +0.3%), lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.85% versus 1.89% late Tuesday) and Japan's export sales weigh the pair. However, USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers and by the Bank of Japan's large-scale easing monetary policy.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, although, the latter is at the oversold levels. Five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 116. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 115.50. The pivot point stands at 117.55. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to this scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 117.95 and the second target at 118.50.
Resistance levels:
117.95
118.50
119
Support levels:
116
115.50
115
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