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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is going to to trade in a higher range. It is undermined by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.07 versus 96.63 early Monday) after the US ISM non-manufacturing March report pointed to a brighter growth outlook. The non-manufacturing PMI slipped unexpectedly to 56.5 from 56.9 in February (versus forecast 56.9). The ISM's non-manufacturing employment index rose to 56.6 in March from 56.4 in February. New orders increased to 57.8 in March from 56.7 in February, while the export index jumped to 59.0 from 53.0. Also, Fed's Dudley said the soft patch in the US economy was likely to be caused by temporary factors such as the harsh winter, weak dairy prices, and the kiwi sales on rebounding AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the improved investor risk appetite and NZD-USD interest differential.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are in bullish mode. Although, the inside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7620 and the second target at 0.7665. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7460. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7420. The pivot point is at 0.7510.
Resistance levels:
0.7620
0.7665
0.7695
Support levels:
0.7460
0.7420
0.7375
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