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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms had previously been set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570, which had previously been reached in August 1997.
Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.
April's monthly candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection in the area around 1.1400.
December's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one allowing the current bullish pullback to take place towards 1.1370.
The zone of 1.1350-1.1400 stood as a significant supply zone to be watched during the recent bullish pullback. As we expected, an evident bearish rejection was recently manifested in February's monthly candlestick (inverted hammer candlestick).
The level of 0.9450 will remain a long-term bearish target in case the current monthly candlestick closes below the depicted demand level of 1.0570.
In October 2015, the daily supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 produced significant bearish pressure shortly after the EUR/USD pair spiked above the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).
A bearish breakout of the depicted uptrend was performed later on October 23. This enhanced a long-term bearish scenario with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0600.
In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (monthly demand level) where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.
During the last few weeks, a consolidation range extending between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart. On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range.
That is why, a quick bullish movement took place towards the zone of 1.1350-1.1400 where previous daily bottoms and the backside of the broken uptrend are depicted on the daily chart.
On February 12, a strong bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed near the mentioned supply level. Hence, a quick bearish decline towards 1.1000 was expected.
A bearish breakdown below 1.1000 (upper limit of the broken range) was manifested on the daily chart. A quick bearish decline was expected towards 1.0820 where the current bullish recovery was initiated.
Currently, daily fixation above 1.1000 is mandatory to allow further bullish movement towards the price level of 1.1130 initially.
Trading Recommendation:
For conservative traders, a valid buy entry was offered around the lower limit of the broken consolidation range around 1.0800-1.0820. S/L should be located below below 1.0820 to offset the associated risk. Initial T/P levels are located at 1.1000 and 1.1130.
Once daily fixation above 1.1000 is achieved, more bullish targets around 1.1130 and 1.1250 should be expected. Otherwise, sideways consolidation will continue between 1.1000 - 1.0820.
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