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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias as the pair remains within a bearish channel. The pair keeps trading within a bearish channel established on June 6. As long as the upper boundary of the bearish channel is not surpassed, the pair is likely to return to the first downside target at 100.20 (around the low of July 6) before declining further to 99.90. At the same time, the key resistance has been lowered to 101.05.
Market Commentary :
On Friday, US stock indexes settled more than 1% higher, cheered by a much-better-than-expected June jobs report. The S&P 500 gained 1.5% to 2129, just a hair below the record high closing level of 2130 marked on May 21, 2015. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% to 18146, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.6% to 4956. Technology and consumer discretionary shares were market leaders.
The US Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increased 287,000 in June (vs. +165,000 expected, +11,000 in May). Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose to 4.9% in June (vs. 4.8% expected) from 4.7% in May.
European stocks continued to rally, with the Stoxx Europe 600 gaining 1.6%.
Despite the encouraging June jobs report, which should help boost expectations of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates soon, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield settled at a record low of 1.366%, down from 1.387% Thursday.
Gold gained 0.5% to $1366 an ounce (day-low at $1336), and silver soared 3.1% to $20.26 an ounce (day-low at $19.20). Meanwhile, Nymex crude oil rebounded 0.6% to $45.41.
Regarding forex trading, the US dollar posted a short-lived surge after the June jobs report before coming back to levels where it started (and closed) with. EUR/USD edged down 0.1% to 1.1052 (day-low at 1.0999), GBP/USD rose 0.4% to 1.2954 (day-low at 1.2876), while USD/JPY was down 0.2% to 100.53.
Commodities-linked currencies were mixed. USD/CAD climbed 0.3% higher to 1.3042, while AUD/USD surged 1.2% to 0.7567 and NZD/USD was up 1.1% to 0.7304.
Recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 100.20. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 99.90. The pivot point stands at 101.05. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 101.45 and the second one, at 101.80.
Resistance levels: 101.45 , 101.80, 102.20
Support levels: 100.20, 99.90, 99.25
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