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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.
In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.
Again In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.
That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May and June).
In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.
On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis (low probability).
The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish fixation below 1.1000 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.
On July 8, recent bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range), but on July 15 significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.1150.
This week, bearish fixation below 1.1000 will be needed to allow a bearish decline to 1.0820 (key level 2) where price actions should be watched for a possible short-term BUY entry.
On the other hand, the EUR/USD pair kept trading above the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range). Hence, further bullish advance towards 1.1170 and 1.1220 was executed as expected.
Price action should be watched around the price zone of 1.1250 (Supply Level 1) for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed. However, temporary bullish breakout is being expressed above 1.1250.
Note that bullish persistence above 1.1250 allows further bullish advance towards 1.1400 (Supply Level 2) where a better SELL entry can be offered.
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