28.10.201610:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global macro overview for 28/10/2016

Global macro overview for 28/10/2016:

Another OPEC meeting starts today in Vienna, Austria and it will last until Sunday. The OPEC and non-OPEC members will try to reach agreement on further supply cuts, but it looks like the negotiations will be tough. As we remember, on the last meeting in Algeria the OPEC members agreed on a modest oil production cut in the first such pact since 2008 and Saudi Arabia was a leader for this change. The preliminary agreement was reached to reduce the output to 33 million barrels per day. After the event, the Gulf Bay OPEC countries are willing to cut 4 percent from their peak oil output. Nevertheless, this week Iraq stated it would not reduce its oil output anymore due to a lack of funds to fight the Islamic State. In conclusion, no real breakthrough is anticipated after the Vienna meeting, but the outcomes might be very interesting for further global market sentiment on oil production.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture in the 4H time frame. After the lower low had been made in the demand zone (a gray rectangle) the market bounced a little, but wasn't able to break out above the dashed blue trend line. Moreover, it looks like bears are testing the demand zone again as the price is now reversing back towards the technical support at the level of 49.13. Any violation of the demand zone would mean bears are in full control over this market and the next support is seen at the level of 46.53.