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On Monday, the euro dropped 40 points amid fears about additional monetary stimulus to Greece, increased demand for the US dollars due to talks about China’s stimulus programs, drop of India’s Industrial production (-2.2% vs. expectations -1.1%, yoy), and weak data on Japan’s GDP in the second quarter (0.6% vs. expectations for 0.9%).
Today at 13:00 UTC+4 Industrial Production in the Eurozone in June is published; forecast 1.1% vs. -0.3% in May. At the same time ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) in August. In Germany it is expected to rise from 36.3 to 40.3, in the Eurozone it is expected to grow from 32.8 to 37.4.
At 16:30 UTC+4 data on the US is revealed. US Retail Sales are expected to drop from 0.4% to 0.2%. However, data on Retail Sales ex. Auto is expected to rise from 0.0% in June to 0.4% in July.
If European data is not lower than expected, when the testing level 1.3322 is broken, we expect the rise to the high of July 31, 1.3345. If data is negative, during the second attempt to consolidate under 1.3300, we expect the decline to 1.3265, and probably to the second target 1.3232 (the low of August 5).
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