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The major Friday’s event US New Home Sales in July disappointed considerably and many investors thought to leave the QE3 program unchanged after September. Sales totaled 394K vs. forecast for 487K and data from June was revised downwardly from 497K to 455K. Consequently, US 10-year yields dropped to 2.81% and the dollar followed it; the euro vs. US dollar has added 25 points.
Today the major event is US Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation in July (16:30 UTC+4), forecast 0.5% vs. 0.0% in June. US Durable Goods Orders are expected to drop 3.6% vs. a 4.2% growth in June.
Taking into account the fact that the Fed regards only Core Durable Goods Orders, the investors may consider strong data as a sign of the beginning of QE3 cut from September. In other words, it is the right time for traders; the price may freely move both up and down.
If the Friday’s high is broken, the price may test the resistance of trend line on 1.3442. The second target is 1.3458. If the lower testing level 1.3360 is broken, which corresponding to the break of balance price line (red sliding) on the H4, the first target is 1.3312, significant level of August 7, 13, 16. Consolidation under the level (correspondingly under indicator line of Kruzenshtern on the H4) will make the prerequisites for further decline to the support of red channel on 1.3180.
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