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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.
CCI: -38.5563
Reports on retail sales and industrial production in the United States were much weaker than expected to see the markets. However, they did not harm the US dollar much. The pair remains below the moving average line and threatens to move to a sideways movement in recent days. The trade war between China and the US is not too worried about the EUR/USD pair traders. Market participants failed to overcome the level of 1.1260 with two attempts, and this point is the best shows the weakness of the bulls at this time. Meanwhile, it was reported that this week, Donald Trump will have to make a decision on trade disagreements with the European Union. As it is not difficult to guess, Trump believes that the EU "has treated America unfairly for a long time", so it is also necessary to introduce trade duties against them. First of all, the increase in duties on European imports may affect the automotive industry. It will be a very serious blow to the EU economy. We believe that any escalation of the conflict with the European Union will have a very negative impact on the positions of the euro. At the same time, we believe that the EU will not take a position as strong as China, and will sit down at the negotiating table with Washington much faster.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1169
S2 – 1.1108
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1230
R2 – 1.1292
R3 – 1.1353
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair has overcome the moving average but is currently being adjusted. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the completion of the current round of correction and open new short positions with the target of 1.1169.
It is recommended to consider trading for an increase in the pair with extreme caution and small lots not earlier than fixing the price above the moving average line and the level of 1.1230 with the first goal of 1.1292. The intermediate target is 1.1260.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.
The lower linear regression channel – the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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