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Over the past trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a relatively low volatility of 73 points. As a result, it humbly continued the process of accumulation formation. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the accumulation process that came to us after a small rollback has been going on for a considerable time, therefore, short positions still prevail in the market, although they had a partial fixation. Otherwise, the rollback would have turned into a significant correction against the background of such a rapid decline, which we saw earlier.
As discussed in the previous review, traders continue to hold short positions, having partial fixations in the way. In turn, the theory of further decline, reinforced by the general background of Brexit, gives hope to sat-up sellers. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the rollback-stagnation phase has not yet violated the "Impulse" clock base, and whether the current fluctuation is a kind of regrouping of trading forces due to the strong overheating of short positions.
The information and news background of the past day included statistics on open vacancies in the US labor market, where they expected a reduction from 7.323 thousand to 7.317 thousand, which, in principle, was obtained, but with a review of previous indicators, where as a result, a decrease came out from 7.384 thousand to 7.348 thousand. How did it affected the pound / dollar exchange rate? Frankly nothing, since the pair has been concentrating exclusively on the hype of the UK and EU divorce proceedings for a long time, casting all remaining events and statistics into the background. In this case, the question arises: what is there in the vast battles of England and Brussels? Everything goes on as usual, no one is ready to make concessions. On tuesday, European Commission diplomats said they did not see the reasons and grounds for further negotiations with England, which in fact signals that that a deadlock in the negotiations was successfully found and the scenario for a hard exit is greater than ever. In turn, without giving up, the newly elected Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that he did not intend to resign even in the event of a vote of no confidence, he would achieve his goal. Such a firm position and desire to go out at all costs frighten already frightened investors. Thereby, the clouds over Britain are thickening even more. the newly elected Prime Minister Minister Boris Johnson said that he did not intend to resign even in the event of a vote of no confidence, he would achieve his goal. Such a firm position and desire to go out at all costs frighten already frightened investors. Thereby, the clouds over Britain are thickening even more. the newly elected Prime Minister Minister Boris Johnson said that he did not intend to resign even in the event of a vote of no confidence, he would achieve his goal. Such a firm position and desire to go out at all costs frighten already frightened investors. Thereby, the clouds over Britain are thickening even more.
If we were talking about investors and business, then there was news that a full-fledged construction crisis was brewing in Britain, just due to the beloved Brexit. Representatives of the British construction industry said that Brexit, whatever it may be, will greatly affect construction sites, where there will be a strong shortage of labor, as tightening the rules of entry into the country. Let me remind you that about 50% of the workforce are foreigners, and to satisfy the British demand for housing, it is necessary to build at least 250 thousand houses every year.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we only have a housing price index from Halifax, in the UK, where we see a decline from 5.7% to 4.1%. The main impulse of the market continues to be Brexit's information background, thereby continuing to monitor the information flow.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the fluctuation within the boundaries of accumulation is preserved in the market, where there is clearly a certain ambiguity in actions. It seems like they are oversold, but there is nothing to grow at the same time. Traders, in turn, are measured in short positions, partially taking profits and shifting restrictive orders, there will still be an opportunity to replenish the deal.
It is likely to assume that the chatterbox within the range of 1.2100-1.2200 (+/- 20p) will remain for some time, but the longer we sit in stagnation, the sharper the splash. Now, the task is to identify a clear informational background, which will lead to a breakthrough of the cluster boundaries, thereby just a puncture is not enough.
Based on the available information, it is possible to expand a number of variations, let's specify them:
- Positions to buy are considered in the case of price fixing higher than 1.2220. However, a good reason is necessary, since the hope for a technical correction fell last week.
- Positions for sale have already been blown away by traders for a long time, topping up will be considered in case of a breakthrough of accumulation and leaving below 1.2090. But again, we need an informational background, which they are likely to expect.
Indicator analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short and intraday perspective signal upward interest, but it should be taken into account that congestion and indicators in this case can be volatile. The medium-term outlook, on the other hand, retains an overall downward interest.
Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(August 7 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 45 points. Volatility will remain in the framework of the daily average fluctuation, until the moment the cluster is broken.
Key levels
Resistance zones: 1.2150 **; 1.2350 **; 1.2430; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1.3300
Support areas: 1.2150 **; 1,2000; 1.1700; 1.1475 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment
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