10.11.202121:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Will the SPX end the year with a bull run?

Long-term review

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I believe it is highly unlikely to end the year with a continued bull run. The bullish run since last year February has been overly extended and it is time for a correction. On a weekly basis SPX remains in a bullish trend making higher highs and higher lows, however the RSI is providing another bearish divergence signal increasing the chances of a reversal.

Red line - bearish divergence

The RSI is warning bulls that the up trend is weakening. A 100 point decline is highly anticipated and this is the minimum of a pull back that we expect. If price turns over and starts the decline, our target would be 3750 where we find the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the entire upward movement that started in the first quarter of 2020. The current new high was accompanied by 3 lower highs and now the RSI is turning below 70, increasing the chances of a pull back. For me its not a matter of when, it is a matter of how big a pull back will be. Bulls need to be very cautious.

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