01.09.202111:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: OPEC forecasts demand to outstrip supply in 2022

OPEC said the oil deficit this 2021 will be offset by a surplus in 2022, when production rises further.

The data to be presented during the group's meeting on Tuesday is expected to convince the coalition and its partners that they can continue ramping up output this October.

But even if production increases by about 400,000 bpd monthly, supply will continue to decline until the end of this year, as global stocks are projected to drop by an average of 825,000 bpd over the next four months.

Fortunately, such figures only pose new challenges to Saudi Arabia and other countries, so it is likely that the oil market will tip back into surplus starting January, which will persist all throughout 2022.

OPEC even forecast global supply to exceed demand by an average of 2.5 million bpd next year, which will cause inventories to grow by 913 million barrels. But this will happen only if the group outputs approximately 6 million barrels per day.

In any case, oversupply will be acute during the seasonal lull after winter, and would amount to at most 4.4 million bpd in February.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also said during the group's last meeting that they are prepared to pause or even reverse the scheduled production increases if necessary.