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The New Year holidays are approaching, and with it, the first sparks of an upward trend that is brewing in the bitcoin market are visible. After a long period of consolidation, the cryptocurrency resumes impulse attempts to gain a foothold above important resistance zones. This indicates the activation of buyers and the approaching denouement of the consolidation period.
Over the past day, the main digital asset has risen by 5%, gained a foothold above $49k, and as of December 22, is preparing to storm $50k. The main positive is the activation of the audience of buyers and the appearance of the necessary volumes, which neutralize the pressure of limit orders above $49k-$50k.
It is too early to talk about the start of a full-fledged rally, but the first signal for future growth has appeared. Now the bulls need to increase the volume of purchases in order to confidently gain a foothold above the psychological mark of $ 50k.
The altcoin market has also moved into the green growth zone, but it can be risky to make active transactions before fixing BTC above $50k.
In addition to the obvious bullish signals, fundamental on-chain data indicate the growth of bitcoin. According to Santiment, there is a record number of unrealized funds on the balances of cryptocurrency exchanges. This is a bullish signal, since the use of these volumes (buying) can provoke a significant rise in the price of digital assets.
In addition, mining companies continue to accumulate and hold record Bitcoin reserves, which goes against the usual behavior of crypto miners. It is likely that miners will become a new hold group of investors, and therefore the purchase of new bitcoins in the future will become much more complicated. In the long term, this will contribute to the growth of demand for the asset due to its scarcity. In the short term, this makes bitcoin more stable before the impending price rally to new highs.
On the four-hour timeframe, bitcoin managed to go beyond the local descending channel, but the price stumbled upon significant volumes of sellers. With this in mind, the main target for today is a successful consolidation above $49k. After a short period of consolidation, the price will move to the round mark of $50k, which it will not break on the first attempt.
For a bull market, it is important that quotes do not stagnate in the psychological area, as a reverse price rebound may occur.
A successful consolidation above $50k will be the first signal for the start of the recovery period and growth to local highs. The main target of the medium-term upward momentum is the $52k-$54k zone, where the main levels of the local downward trend pass. A bullish breakdown of this zone will mean the end of the corrective movement and the beginning of a price rally.
On the daily chart, the wedge begins to work out, but the situation is complicated by an additional level of resistance of the downward trend from November 10. With this in mind, I consider the probability of a reverse rebound to the consolidation area, which will delay the upward movement and neutralize the local bullish momentum. Despite this, I believe in a bullish wedge breakout due to the growing confidence of bulls and an increase in the volume of purchases.
Technical indicators also indicate a likely breakdown of a difficult mark: the MACD formed a bullish intersection for the first time in December, and the stochastic and the relative strength index are in the bullish zone and are growing, which confirms the thesis about the activation of buyers.
In the next two days, Bitcoin may interrupt the corrective movement that begins on November 10. Fundamentally and psychologically, the market is ready for a breakthrough. The final target for the week is a successful assault on the $52k-$54k zone and movement to the countertrend line. However, I will add a pinch of skepticism and keep in mind that the probability of forming a bottom at $42k remains, even though the chances of bears are melting before our eyes.
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