04.07.202315:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: U.S. Dollar Index Outlook on July 4, 2023

The U.S. dollar index shows a flat trend on Tuesday following the weak macro statistics from the U.S. on Monday and in the absence of major U.S. players in the market on the celebration of Independence Day.

From a technical point of view, the DXY index (CFD #USDX in the MT4 terminal) is trying to develop an upward trend towards the key medium-term resistance levels of 103.50 (144 EMA on the daily chart, 50 EMA on the weekly chart), 103.60 (200 EMA on the daily chart). A breakout of these will return the DXY to the long-term bull market zone.

The signal for purchases will be a breakout of the short-term resistance level 103.00 (200 EMA on the 15-minute chart) and local resistance levels 103.06 and 103.24 (today's and yesterday's local highs).

In an alternative scenario, the signal for a decline and the opening of new short positions will be on the break below the important medium-term support level 102.90 (50 EMA on the daily chart) and the important short-term support level 102.88 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart).

If negative macro data continue to come from the U.S. this week, then a consistent breakdown of local supports at 102.50, 102.00 will give the DXY index the necessary impulse to develop a downside scenario, directing the DXY inside the downward channel on the weekly chart and towards the key long-term support levels of 100.75 (144 EMA on the weekly chart), 100.00, 99.50 (200 EMA on the weekly chart).

Their breakdown, in turn, will break the long-term bullish trend of DXY.

Support levels: 102.90, 102.88, 102.50, 102.00, 101.50, 101.00, 100.75, 100.00, 99.50

Resistance levels: 103.00, 103.50, 103.60, 104.00, 104.65, 105.00, 105.85, 106.00, 107.00, 107.80