12.08.201109:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 12, 2011

Long-term review

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AUD/USD is moving within subwave 4 (from 1.09928) of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. These four waves are part of wave A of larger degree from 1.1079 (colored royal blue in the chart). Within wave 4 there are three subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0111.

The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1063-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0414-1.0111.

Resistances:

- 1.0414 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0496 = .50 retracement
- 1.0597 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0629 = .618 ret

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements 0.9928-1.0414, and expansions off 1.0414-1.0111-1.0358.

Supports:

- 1.0171 = COP
- 1.0114 = .618 ret
- 1.0055 = OP
- 0.9928 = 100% ret
- 0.9868 = expanded objective point (XOP)

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (30-60 pips below the current prices).

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