19.08.201110:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 19, 2011

Long-term review

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GBP/JPY is developing potential impulse wave РЎ of medium term downtrend from 126.95 (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave there are two subwaves (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 125.66.

The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 123.27-126.95, and expansions off 130.81-123.27-126.95, and 126.95-125.66-126.77.

Supports:

- 125.54-48 = confluence area of .382 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 125.11 = .50 ret
- 124.68 = confluence area of .618 ret and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 123.39 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 122.29 = contracted objective point (COP)

If the price reverses to the upside and breaks above 126.95 the immdiate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-123.27, and expansions off 123.27-126.95-125.66.

Resistances:

- 127.04 = .50 ret
- 127.93 = confluence area of .618 ret and COP

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the major trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (15-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (50-65 pips above the current prices).

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