16.05.202405:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on May 16, 2024

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EUR/USD

Yesterday's market rally was spectacular: S&P 500 up 1.17%, gold up 1.55%, euro up 0.69% (64 pips). However, what's spectacular about it is not so much the price dynamics as the unexpected market reaction to the US data. Both the core and CPI came out at forecast levels: 3.6% y/y (compared to 3.8% y/y in March) and 3.4% y/y (compared to 3.5% y/y previously), respectively. Retail sales for April was unexpectedly flat against an expected increase of 0.4%.

The nature of the euro's rise remains corrective. After yesterday's momentum, the pair may continue to rise for another 2-3 days, during which time the price could reach the level of 1.0943 - the peak of March 21, after which it could fall back below 1.0905 with consolidation and the prospect of declining to 1.0796. If the price successfully surpasses 1.0943, it could also reach the target range of 1.1001/10, formed by the peaks of December 14 and January 11.

On the 4-hour chart, the price continues to rise above the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator appears to be trying to enter the overbought zone. Its support is getting weaker, but adjacent markets are pushing the euro higher.

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