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The test of the 1.0855 price level occurred when the MACD indicator started to move down from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 30 points. The lack of statistics in the first half of the day and yesterday's statements from Federal Reserve representatives, which were far from dovish, likely caused the return of pressure on risky assets in the morning. In the afternoon, the focus should be on data on U.S. existing home sales and the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. Housing market statistics are less significant than the sentiments of the Federal Reserve representatives, which will be evident upon studying the minutes. If the majority take a hawkish stance, don't be surprised if the pressure on the euro increases. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0843 (green line on the chart) to rise to 1.0869. At 1.0869, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Upward movement for the euro today is only possible if the Federal Reserve representatives adopt a dovish stance and U.S. statistics are very poor. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0822 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0843 and 1.0869 can be expected.
Scenario 1: I will sell the euro after reaching the 1.0822 level (red line). The target will be 1.0795, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return after the Federal Reserve minutes are published and expectations of a longer delay for the first rate cut in the U.S. are confirmed. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0843 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0822 and 1.0795 can be expected.
Beginner forex traders should make entry decisions very cautiously. To avoid sharp price fluctuations, it is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, you need a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above, for successful trading. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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