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EUR/USD
Contrary to our expectations, the euro did not fall to the nearest target range of 1.0636/50, but it also didn't rise above the resistance at 1.0724, which was tested by the upper shadow. Trading volume was slightly above average for the current month, indicating some profit-taking on short-term sales.
Investors have already started to prepare for Independence Day in the US and for next week's key ISM and employment data. However, today, market participants must endure the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is expected to decrease from 2.7% to 2.6% in annual terms, but it may turn out to be higher as yesterday's GDP quarterly data showed 3.4% against an expectation of 3.3%. This would delay investors' expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. We expect the pair to trade sideways in the range of 1.0668-1.0740 in the short-term period, the upper limit of which is defined by the MACD line on the daily timeframe. Without breaking the main downward trend, the price may briefly reach the target level of 1.0788 in a thin market. The Marlin oscillator clearly shows the sideways development of the current trend.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD indicator line. Considering the sideways development with the MACD line laying horizontally, the quote can easily wrap around this line as a pivot. The Marlin oscillator moves to the right along the neutral zero line. We expect the sideways movement to end by next week. Any sharp price movements in any direction are most likely to be false signals.
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