03.07.202408:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The ECB will proceed carefully and cautiously

Yesterday, the euro and the pound managed to rise after the bears failed to break through the weekly lows. Numerous European Central Bank officials have spoken this week, but their speeches no longer draw significant attention from the market, although traders still emphasize certain points.

Inflation data for last month will not provide answers to the ECB's lingering questions on underlying price pressures, according to Chief Economist Philip Lane. In an interview, Lane agreed with ECB President Christine Lagarde's position, signaling that another cut in interest rates in July is unlikely, calling for patience in gathering evidence that the ECB is heading toward its 2% target.

"Really the questions for the July meeting are going to be on the economic side," Lane said in an interview on Tuesday. "The June inflation data, we still have questions on services inflation," he said. "These data do not settle that."

In addition to Lane, other ECB representatives also gave comments. Lithuania's central-bank chief Gediminas Simkus said "expectations for two more cuts this year are in line with my own thinking, if data evolve as expected,". According to Belgium's Pierre Wunsch, the first two rate cuts are relatively easy as long as inflation hovers around 2.5%.

As a reminder, last month the ECB lowered borrowing costs for the first time, after which officials began cautiously weighing the possibility of further cuts. The focus is on services inflation and wage growth as key factors for future price changes.

Also, earlier this week, Lagarde said that the ECB still faces several uncertainties regarding inflation, and it will take time to gather enough data to ensure that the risks of exceeding the inflation target have passed.

By the way, according to Eurostat data, consumer inflation in the Eurozone slowed to 2.5% in June from 2.6% a month earlier. However, core prices did not show any positive dynamics, remaining at 2.9%. Today, Eurozone Services PMI data will be published, and if they remain at a sufficiently good level, the bulls will have a chance to recover.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers need to think about capturing the 1.0760 level so they can test the 1.0790 level. From there, it is possible to climb to 1.0820, but doing so without support from big players will be quite difficult. The furthest target would be the 1.0845 high. In case the euro falls, I expect big buyers to take action around the 1.0730 area. If traders are not active there, it would be good to wait for the price test of the 1.0710 low, or to open long positions from 1.0685.

In regards to the current technical picture of GBP/USD, the bulls need to capture the nearest resistance at 1.2710, which serves as the weekly high. This will make it possible to aim for 1.2735, but it will be quite difficult to break above this mark. The furthest target would be the 1.2760 area, after which one could talk about a significant surge to 1.2780. In case the pair falls, the bears will try to take control of 1.2665. If they manage to do this, breaking the range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD to the 1.2640 low with the prospect of reaching 1.2615.