30.07.202411:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Review and Analysis

Today, the price of gold attracts some buyers on the decline but remains constrained within the broader trading range of the previous day, staying below the round level of $2400. A weaker tone in the stock markets and geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East are the main factors supporting precious metal prices. Increasing expectations of the start of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle keep dollar bulls on the defensive below the two-week high reached on Monday, benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal.

However, gold price growth will remain limited as traders prefer to wait for additional signals on the Fed's monetary policy path before making a firm decision on the short-term direction. Accordingly, attention will remain focused on the results of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which concludes on Wednesday. Along with important U.S. macroeconomic data, including Friday's nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, this will influence the dynamics of the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the XAU/USD pair. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for some follow-up buying before confirming that the recent pullback from the all-time high has ended.

From a technical perspective, the overnight failure to gain acceptance above the round level of $2400 and the subsequent decline call for some caution before positioning for significant growth. Moreover, the oscillators on the daily chart have just begun to gain negative momentum, suggesting that the path of least resistance is likely downward. However, bearish traders will need to wait for a sustained break below the support at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently around the $2358 level, before opening new positions.

Some follow-up selling below last week's swing low, around $2353, will confirm a negative outlook, dragging XAU/USD to the next relevant support at the $2325 level. The downward trajectory could extend further, potentially testing the round figure of $2300.

On the opposite side, momentum above the $2400 mark is likely to face some resistance around $2415 before last week's swing high in the $2432 level. A sustained break beyond this would indicate that the corrective decline from the all-time high has run its course, paving the way for additional gains. Gold prices could then rise to intermediate resistance at $2469-2470 and challenge the record all-time high in the $2483-2484 zone.