19.08.202413:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold starts the new week on a softer note, retreating from Friday's record high while maintaining a defensive stance and holding the $2500 level. There is increasing agreement that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs in September, leading to declining U.S. Treasury yields. This, in turn, is pushing the U.S. dollar to its lowest level since January, benefiting gold.

Additionally, the risk of further escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is helping to limit the decline in the price of precious metals. However, it is prudent to wait for additional signals on the Fed's rate cut path before opening new positions. Therefore, attention remains focused on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

From a technical perspective, Friday's breakout above the $2470-2472 resistance area and the subsequent strengthening above the previous all-time high were perceived as new triggers for the bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory and are far from the overbought zone. This suggests that the path of least resistance for gold is upward. Nevertheless, the failure to build momentum above the key $2500 level warrants caution from the bulls. Thus, before positioning for further gains, it is advisable to wait for confirmed buying activity beyond Friday's high.

On the other hand, the breakout point at $2470 serves as support against an immediate decline. Any further downward movement is likely to attract new buyers and remain limited in the $2446-2450 zone. This area will become a key pivot point for short-term traders. A decisive break here could pave the way for deeper losses. Gold could then accelerate its corrective slide towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with some intermediate support around the $2400 level.