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Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro
The test of the 1.1126 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro, expecting further correction after a small retracement observed during the Asian session. As shown on the chart, the pair dropped to around 1.1090, resulting in a profit of about 30 points. The afternoon session will bring a lot of data that could further harm the euro, especially if the figures turn out to be worse than economists' forecasts. We expect data on initial jobless claims, GDP changes for Q2, the GDP price index, pending home sales, and the trade balance. FOMC member Raphael Bostic's speech will be a key event to watch. Regarding intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios #1 and #2, continuing the correction.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches around 1.1118 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the 1.1157 level. At 1.1157, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30-35 points from the entry point. A significant upward movement of the euro is unlikely today. It is important to note: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1089 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger an upward reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1118 and 1.1157.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro if it reaches the 1.1089 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1044 level, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20-25 points in the opposite direction. The pressure on the pair will remain in the afternoon after good U.S. statistics. It is important to note: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1118 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a downward reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1089 and 1.1044.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick Green Line: Target price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick Red Line: Target price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginners in the forex market need to be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are trading large volumes without appropriate risk management.
Remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.
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