16.09.202412:34 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold reached an all-time high today, touching $2589-2590 and nearing the psychological level of $2600. The decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar are the primary drivers behind the rise in the yellow metal. This comes amid expectations of more aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks further support demand for this safe-haven investment.

However, the optimistic sentiment in global stock markets may deter bullish traders from entering aggressive gold positions. Investors might also prefer to step aside ahead of key central bank events this week, especially the outcome of the critical Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. This will be followed by the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting on Thursday and the Bank of Japan's meeting on Friday, which could induce some market volatility and give the XAU/USD pair new momentum.

Technical Analysis. The recent upward movement within the upward channel since June indicates a well-established uptrend, supporting the outlook for further growth. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought territory, suggesting traders eyeing further growth should exercise caution. It's important to note that, according to the RSI, any subsequent upward movement will likely face strong resistance, potentially remaining capped by the upper boundary of the ascending channel, currently near the psychological level of $2600. This level should serve as a critical turning point, and a decisive breakout above it could pave the way for further gains.

On the other hand, the $2560 level now serves as immediate support before the former resistance-turned-support area at $2525-2530. Any further decline is likely to attract new buyers, with strong support at the psychological level of $2500. However, a drop below the $2485 level could make gold vulnerable to an accelerated decline toward the $2470 support and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A decisive break below the 50-day SMA would shift the short-term bias in favor of the bears.