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The test of the 1.1174 price level occurred when the MACD indicator began its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point into the market. Consequently, the pair advanced by approximately 25 points, reaching the target level of 1.1199. Selling on the rebound from that point, following Scenario #2, provided an additional gain of about 10 points. No significant statistics are expected from the U.S., as the Chicago PMI index is unlikely to draw much trader interest. However, the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may offer insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy and the pace of interest rate cuts in November. Should there be indications of a dovish approach, the dollar will likely weaken, and the euro could experience active buying, even as the month concludes. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to operate based on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the 1.1209 level (indicated by the green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 1.1253. At the 1.1253 mark, I will exit the market and sell the euro, expecting a reversal movement of 30-35 points. A strong upward move in the euro today is likely only if the Federal Reserve maintains a dovish stance. Important! Before entering a buy position, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1180 twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. An increase toward the levels of 1.1209 and 1.1253 is anticipated.
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after it reaches 1.1180 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1139, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro again (targeting a 20-25 point reversal from this level). Pressure on the pair will resume if strong U.S. statistics emerge. Important! Before entering a sell position, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward.
Scenario #2: I will also sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1209 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will cap the pair's upward potential and prompt a reversal downward. A drop to the levels of 1.1180 and 1.1139 is expected.
Important: Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of critical fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly lead to the loss of your entire deposit, especially if you don't practice money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, having a well-defined trading plan, like the one above, is essential for successful trading. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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