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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 154.19 level occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark. This confirmed the correct entry point for buying the pair, resulting in a rise of over 50 pips, though it didn't reach the target level. Demand for the dollar remains strong following Trump's victory in the elections, and it's hard to imagine what might derail the new upward wave for the pair. Today's data on wage levels in Japan was ignored, and after a minor downward correction, dollar demand will likely return. Betting on further yen weakening is reasonable until the Federal Reserve meeting, the outcome of which will be known this evening. We'll discuss it in more detail in the afternoon forecast. For now, I plan to buy the dollar more on corrections. I'll focus primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point at 154.38 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the level of 154.98 (thicker green line on the chart). At 154.98, I plan to exit buy trades and open sell positions, expecting a 30-35 pip pullback. The pair's upward movement is likely to continue, but it's best to buy on corrections. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 153.84 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 154.38 and 154.98.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below the 153.84 level (red line on the chart), likely leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.33, where I plan to exit sell trades and immediately open buy positions (expecting a 20-25 pip rebound from the level). Significant downward pressure on the pair is unlikely during the first half of the day. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 154.38 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. Declines can be expected to the opposite levels of 153.84 and 153.33.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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