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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair returned to the 323.6% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0532, but bears once again failed to achieve a close below it. This rebound suggests the possibility of a reversal in favor of the euro, with a potential move toward the 261.8% corrective level at 1.0662. A close below 1.0532 would increase the likelihood of further declines toward the next support at 1.0420.
The current wave structure is clear. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the ongoing downward wave has breached the last two lows. This indicates the continuation of the bearish trend. Bulls have lost momentum, and a reversal would require the pair to rise above 1.0800, which seems unlikely in the short term.
On Friday, U.S. economic data provided mixed signals. The industrial production report fell slightly short of expectations, while retail sales exceeded forecasts. As a result, the dollar failed to gain a decisive advantage. It is also noteworthy that the price has hovered around 1.0532 for three consecutive days without any meaningful bullish attempts to break higher. Therefore, a breakout below this level remains the most likely scenario. Although Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak today, her recent speeches have had little effect on supporting the euro amid its ongoing decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair remains below the 100.0% corrective level at 1.0603. The CCI indicator has formed a bullish divergence, which signals the potential for some upward movement. However, similar divergences have appeared recently without triggering significant rallies. While a minor rise is possible, there is insufficient evidence to suggest a strong euro recovery at this stage.
Last week, speculators added 103 long positions while closing 14,113 short positions, signaling a shift in non-commercial sentiment toward bearishness. Currently, long positions total 160,000 compared to 167,000 short positions.
For eight consecutive weeks, major players have reduced their exposure to the euro. This trend indicates the emergence of a bearish market or, at the very least, a significant global correction. The primary driver of the dollar's prior decline – expectations of FOMC rate cuts – has already been priced in. Although new factors could emerge over time, the dollar's strength remains the more likely outcome for now. Technical analysis further supports the development of a long-term bearish trend, suggesting a prolonged decline for EUR/USD. Recent COT data does not indicate a bullish trend reversal.
The November 18 economic calendar is light, and the information background is unlikely to have a significant impact on market sentiment today.
Sales were viable following a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0662. This target has been reached. A close below 1.0662 allowed further short positions with targets at 1.0603 and 1.0532, both of which have also been achieved. Today, small-volume buys could be considered with a target of 1.0662. However, a close below 1.0532 would signal that the decline is set to continue.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1003–1.1214 on the hourly chart and from 1.0603–1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.
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