empty
 
 
You are about to leave
www.instaforex.eu >
a website operated by
INSTANT TRADING EU LTD
Open Account

18.11.202413:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on November 18th (Morning Trade Analysis) - Euro Remains in Range

Relevance up to 06:00 2024-11-19 UTC--5
This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here.

In my morning forecast, I identified the 1.0539 level as a key area for market entry. The 5-minute chart shows that a decline and a false breakout at this level provided an entry point for long positions, resulting in a 30-point rise in the pair. The technical outlook for the second half of the day remains unchanged.

Exchange Rates 18.11.2024 analysis

Opening Long Positions on EUR/USD

Trading remains range-bound, but buyers are making attempts to extend the upward correction. In the second half of the day, U.S. housing market index data from NAHB will be released, followed by a speech from FOMC member Austin Goolsbee. The statistics are unlikely to significantly influence the dollar's direction, so market focus will likely shift to Goolsbee's remarks.

If the pair comes under renewed pressure, a false breakout near 1.0539, similar to the morning setup, would be a suitable condition to build long positions, targeting a rise to 1.0580. A breakout and retest of this range would confirm an entry point for further buying, with targets at 1.0617 and 1.0653, where profits should be taken.

If EUR/USD continues to decline and there is no activity near 1.0539, I will consider entering only after a false breakout near the next support at 1.0497 (the monthly low). Alternatively, I may open long positions immediately from a rebound at 1.0474, targeting a 30-35 point correction within the day.

Opening Short Positions on EUR/USD

If the pair rises, sellers will likely defend the 1.0580 resistance level. A false breakout at this level would provide an entry point for short positions, targeting a decline to 1.0539, which marks the midpoint of the range. Below this level, moving averages currently favor the bulls, but a breakout and retest from below would confirm further selling opportunities toward 1.0497 and 1.0474, where profits should be taken.

If the pair rises above 1.0580 after data or ignores Fed comments, euro buyers may attempt to build a correction early in the week. In this case, I will delay selling until 1.0617 is tested and only enter short positions after a failed breakout. Alternatively, I will sell on a rebound from 1.0653, targeting a 30-35 point downward correction.

Exchange Rates 18.11.2024 analysis

The latest COT report (as of November 5) showed a slight increase in long positions (+587 to 159,900) and a sharp reduction in shorts (-28,064 to 181,553). The net position widened by 1,193 contracts, but these figures do not reflect recent events like the U.S. elections or rate changes. Given current conditions, pressure on risk assets and demand for the U.S. dollar are expected to persist.

Exchange Rates 18.11.2024 analysis

Indicator Signals

Moving Averages:

The pair is trading just above the 30 and 50-period moving averages on the H1 chart, signaling potential euro growth.

Bollinger Bands:

In the event of a decline, the lower band near 1.0520 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise.
    • 50-period (yellow on the chart).
    • 30-period (green on the chart).
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Measures momentum and trend direction.
    • Fast EMA: 12-period.
    • Slow EMA: 26-period.
    • Signal Line (SMA): 9-period.
  • Bollinger Bands: Identify volatility and potential support/resistance levels.
    • Period: 20.
  • Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as hedge funds, institutions, and individual traders using futures for speculation.
  • Non-commercial long positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Net position: The difference between long and short positions held by non-commercial traders.
Miroslaw Bawulski
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024

Open trading account

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.




You are now leaving www.instaforex.eu, a website operated by INSTANT TRADING EU LTD
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.

Turn "Do Not Track" off