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In my morning forecast, I focused on the level of 1.0529 and planned to make decisions regarding market entry from this level. Let us examine the 5-minute chart and analyze the developments. The decline and the formation of a false breakout provided an opportunity to enter long positions. However, after a 15-point rise, pressure on the pair returned. The technical picture for the second half of the day has been revised.
European politicians' speeches did not benefit euro buyers, as I cautioned in my morning forecast. In the second half of the day, significant U.S. labor market data will be released. Weekly figures on initial unemployment claims are expected, and an increase in these figures could slightly reduce demand for the U.S. dollar. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will also be a focal point for traders.
If the statistics are favorable, pressure on the euro will persist, and statements from Federal Reserve representatives will likely amplify this downward momentum. In the event of a further decline in the pair, I prefer to act near the support level of 1.0497, which coincides with the monthly low. Only the formation of a false breakout at this level, similar to the scenario analyzed earlier, will justify adding long positions as part of a corrective move. This could open the way toward the 1.0557 level, formed during the first half of the day.
A breakout and retest of this range will confirm the appropriate entry point for buying, with a target to update 1.0607. The ultimate target will be the 1.0653 level, where I plan to take profit.
If EUR/USD continues to decline and no activity is observed from bulls near 1.0497 in the second half of the day — a likely scenario — the bearish market will persist. In such a case, I will only enter after observing a false breakout near the next support at 1.0474, which represents a new monthly low. I plan to open long positions at a rebound from 1.0451, aiming for an intraday upward correction of 30–35 points.
For Opening Short Positions in EUR/USD
If the pair rises, sellers must defend the resistance at 1.0554, where the moving averages are positioned in their favor. A false breakout at this level, combined with statements from Federal Reserve representatives about a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the U.S., will create an opportunity to enter short positions with the prospect of a decline to the 1.0497 support level.
A breakout and subsequent retest from below this range will present another viable opportunity to sell, targeting a new monthly low at 1.0474, which will further reinforce the pair's downward trend. The ultimate target will be the 1.0451 level, where I plan to take profit.
If EUR/USD moves upward in the second half of the day and market participants ignore statements from Federal Reserve representatives, euro buyers may have another chance to initiate a correction. In this case, I will delay selling until the pair tests the next resistance level at 1.0607. At that level, I will consider selling again, but only after an unsuccessful breakout attempt. I plan to open short positions at a rebound from 1.0653, aiming for a downward correction of 30–35 points.
COT Report (Commitment of Traders) Analysis
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 12 revealed a slight increase in long positions and a sharp decline in short positions. This data reflects the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates as well as policies during Donald Trump's presidency. At current lows, it appears that fewer traders are willing to sell the euro, which could signal the bottoming of EUR/USD and a potential reversal of the medium-term bearish market. However, there is insufficient data to confirm this hypothesis, and it is too early to rely heavily on the report.
The lack of interest from euro buyers is a more significant factor than the reduction in sellers. The COT report shows that non-commercial long positions increased by 103 to 160,003, while short positions decreased by 14,113 to 167,113. Consequently, the gap between long and short positions widened by 3,761.
Indicator Signals
Moving Averages:Trading is occurring just below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating renewed pressure on the pair.
Note: The periods and prices of moving averages are analyzed based on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the conventional definitions of daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.
Bollinger Bands:In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands around 1.0525 will act as support.
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