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The test of the 152.15 level during the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I chose not to sell the dollar and missed the pair's movement.
The Japanese yen continues its steady growth against the US dollar, driven by recent rumors of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. This move could mark a significant turning point for Japan's economy, which has experienced prolonged low interest rates. Investors are showing increased interest in the yen, reflecting hopes for an improved economic outlook. A rate hike could strengthen the yen's purchasing power and impact inflation. Amid global economic instability, such a decision could attract foreign investment to Japan, supporting both the yen and broader economic growth. Shifts in monetary policy by major economies, such as the US, further highlight the importance of Japan's potential actions as an indicator for international markets. Expectations of a rate hike could heighten currency market volatility, prompting traders to adopt attentive and flexible strategies.
The direction of the pair in the second half of the day may also be influenced by US data on initial jobless claims, GDP changes, and the core PCE index. A notable improvement in these figures would be required to halt the USD/JPY pair's downward trend. For my intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the 151.74 level (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 152.41 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 152.41, I will close purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 point downward correction. Any growth in the pair is likely to occur as part of a minor correction.
Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 151.19 twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and may trigger an upward reversal. Growth can be expected to the resistance levels of 151.74 and 152.41.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 151.19 (red line on the chart), likely resulting in a quick decline. The sellers' key target will be 150.57, where I will close sell positions and open buy positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20-25 point upward correction. The greater the correction, the higher the likelihood of renewed pressure on the pair.
Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 151.74 twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines to the support levels of 151.19 and 150.57.
Beginner traders in the forex market should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before significant fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Failing to do so could quickly result in losing your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are generally ineffective for intraday traders.
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