28.11.202412:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, amid a modest rise in U.S. Treasury yields, the Japanese yen remained under pressure. According to yesterday's macroeconomic data, the U.S. economy has remained resilient, while inflation is slowing. This suggests that the Federal Reserve will act cautiously regarding any additional monetary policy easing. As a result, demand for the U.S. dollar has revived, prompting a modest rebound in Treasury yields and diminishing the yen's appeal in the USD/JPY pair.

However, concerns about tariff plans by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, speculation that the Bank of Japan may adjust interest rates in the near future, and ongoing geopolitical risks are preventing the yen from incurring more significant losses. Additionally, with consumer inflation data for Tokyo due on Friday, traders are hesitant to open new positions.

Technical Analysis

Yesterday's break below the critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is seen as a significant bearish signal. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains in negative territory, supporting the outlook for further USD/JPY declines. However, other technical indicators have not confirmed this view. A modest recovery from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, calculated for the rally between September and November, suggests the need for caution.

This recovery is likely to remain capped at the psychological level of 152.00, which coincides with the 200-day SMA. If spot prices breach this level, they could target the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by the next psychological level of 153.00 and a horizontal barrier at 153.30.

Support Levels

On the other hand, immediate support levels include yesterday's low, the 38.2% Fibonacci level, and the psychological level of 150.00. A sustained break below the latter could weaken the pair further, driving it toward the psychological level of 149.00 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.