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The price level tested at 1.0386 in the afternoon coincided with the MACD indicator significantly dropping below the zero mark, which limited the euro's downward potential. Because of this, I chose not to sell the euro and ended up missing out on the downward movement.
Strong U.S. economic data is driving demand for the dollar, making it difficult for buyers of risk assets to firmly consolidate around local highs. Today, pressure on the euro/dollar pair may continue due to expected weak data from Germany. Anticipated figures on changes in retail trade volumes and industrial orders in Germany are expected to disappoint, which could trigger a larger sell-off of the euro.
A decline in retail trade volumes in Germany indicates a decrease in consumer demand, likely due to high inflation and diminished purchasing power. This situation puts pressure on the economy, as domestic demand is a crucial driver of growth. Additionally, a drop in industrial orders suggests a slowdown in manufacturing activity, which could adversely affect the country's export figures—traditionally a cornerstone of Germany's economic stability. Poor economic data from Germany is often seen as a warning sign of potential issues across the eurozone, further impacting the value of the single currency.
I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Buy the euro today near 1.0363 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0394. At 1.0394, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-pip movement from the entry point. Counting on euro growth in the first half of the day is only viable after upbeat economic data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0345 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0363 and 1.0394 can be expected.
Scenario #1: Sell the euro after reaching the 1.0345 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0314, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25-pip movement from the level. Pressure on the pair could return at any moment. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0363 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0345 and 1.0314 can be expected.
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