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The test of the 158.29 price coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying the dollar. I did not witness any further tests of the outlined levels.
During the US session, important US labor market data is expected. The ADP Employment Change report for December and the weekly initial jobless claims data could significantly influence market sentiment. However, dollar issues seem more relevant to riskier assets, which do not include the Japanese yen. The speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller will be in focus as his words might shed light on the Fed's future policy. However, the December FOMC meeting minutes might offer more detailed insights. Waller's comments are often seen as indicators of potential changes in Fed monetary conditions. Known for his pragmatic approach and data-driven focus, his statements hold particular weight for investors.
As noted earlier, it is better to turn to the December FOMC meeting minutes. The document will likely include cautious statements about inflation and emphasize the need to maintain restrictive policy until there are clear signs of sustained price pressure reduction.
For intraday strategies, I will focus on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 158.84 (green line on the chart) with a target rise to 159.62 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.62, I intend to exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point movement downward). Pair growth can be anticipated after strong US data.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 158.28 price level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to opposite levels of 158.94 and 159.62 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking the 158.28 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.48, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point movement upward). Pair pressure could increase today after weak US data.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 158.84 price level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 158.28 and 157.48 can be expected.
Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without applying money management principles.
Lastly, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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