26.03.202518:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 26th (Review of the Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0780 level and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. Although the pair declined, it never reached or formed a false breakout at this level, so I stayed out of the market. The technical outlook for the second half of the day remains unchanged.

To open long positions on EUR/USD:

The absence of economic statistics from the Eurozone weighed on the euro's bullish potential, keeping the pair within a narrow sideways channel. However, the second half of the day could be more eventful, as several U.S. data releases are expected. A better-than-expected U.S. Durable Goods Orders report could support the dollar. As has been typical this week, FOMC member speeches may also benefit the greenback. Interviews with Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem are scheduled.

If the euro declines, only a false breakout around the 1.0780 support level will provide a signal to open long positions in anticipation of a bullish trend aiming to retest 1.0818—a level we have not reached yet today. A breakout and retest of this range would confirm a solid entry point, targeting 1.0856. The furthest target remains the 1.0892 area, where I will take profit.

If EUR/USD falls and there's no activity around 1.0780—which is more likely—the pair may continue its correction. In that case, sellers could push the price down to 1.0746. I will only consider buying after a false breakout at that level. I plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.0715 for an intraday correction of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers remain on the sidelines, awaiting a more informative market. If the U.S. data fails to provoke a reaction, it's better to delay selling until a test of 1.0818. Only a false breakout at that level will serve as a signal to enter short positions, aiming for a correction to the 1.0780 support zone.

A breakout and consolidation below this range will offer another entry opportunity for shorts, targeting 1.0746. The furthest downward target will be 1.0715, where I will lock in profits.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and bears do not act near 1.0818, buyers could push the pair even higher. In that case, I'll delay short entries until the next resistance level at 1.0856, but only after a failed breakout. I also plan to open short positions from 1.0892 on a rebound, aiming for a 30–35 point intraday correction.

COT Report (Commitment of Traders) – March 18:

The report showed an increase in long positions and a sharp decline in shorts. More traders are interested in buying the euro, while sellers are continuing to leave the market. The European Central Bank's cautious stance on rate cuts, combined with weak U.S. fundamentals pushing the Fed toward a more dovish monetary policy, are shifting the balance of power.

According to the report, long non-commercial positions rose by 305 to 188,952, while short non-commercial positions fell by 46,030 to 129,527. As a result, the gap between long and short positions narrowed by 24,714.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages Trading is occurring around the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.

Note: The author uses moving average periods and prices on the H1 hourly chart, which differ from the standard daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0780 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving average (MA) – identifies the current trend by smoothing out price volatility and noise.
  • Period 50 – marked in yellow on the chart
  • Period 30 – marked in green on the chart
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) – Fast EMA: period 12, Slow EMA: period 26, SMA: period 9
• Bollinger Bands – Period 20
• Non-commercial traders – Speculators such as retail traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes
• Long non-commercial positions – Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders
• Short non-commercial positions – Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders
• Net non-commercial position – Difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.