22.04.202511:52 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/GBP. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/GBP pair is losing ground today after two consecutive days of gains, trading near the psychological level of 0.8600.

The pound is receiving support from optimism surrounding ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and the United Kingdom. Following the introduction of new 10% tariffs by President Trump on British goods and 25% tariffs on auto, steel, and aluminum imports, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is attempting to secure a trade agreement with the US.

However, the EUR/GBP pair has been cushioned from a deeper decline by weaker-than-expected UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which has increased expectations that the Bank of England may cut interest rates at its May meeting. Current market expectations point to a total of 86 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year, with a fourth rate cut expected in December. Lower inflation could give the Bank of England more flexibility to support the economy amid rising household spending and persistent global trade tensions. This could, in turn, exert downward pressure on the pound.

Downside pressure on EUR/GBP is limited as the euro is strengthening, supported by broad US dollar weakness. Concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence have grown following comments by Trump and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who stated that Trump is still considering replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

In terms of monetary policy, the European Central Bank recently cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%—its lowest level since early 2023—while also abandoning language describing its stance as "restrictive." Due to growing trade tensions, the ECB acknowledged a worsening economic outlook, and markets are now pricing in three additional rate cuts by year-end.

Technical Outlook: The bullish scenario remains intact, as oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory and far from overbought conditions. A successful break above the key 0.8600 level and resistance at 0.8617 would open the way toward 0.8696, with a possible test of the monthly high.

On the other hand, the 0.85530 level remains the first major support. A break below it could lead to further declines toward 0.8520 and the psychological 0.8500 level, at which point bearish momentum may start to dominate.