01.10.201311:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Forecast for October 1, 2013

The major incentive was given to the euro when the Berlusconi’s People of Liberty party was split. Silvio Berlusconi withdrew his support for the nation’s five-month-old administration on September 28 and 5 ministers from his People of Liberty party quit the Cabinet. Enrico Letta defied Berlusconi’s attempts to force early elections and said he would request a confidence vote for October 2 to save his government.

Data on Retail sales in Germany was worse than expected 90.5% vs. 0.9%), however, the investors did not pay much attention.

Last weekend, elections in Portugal

The Social Democratic Party of Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho won fewer town halls in municipal elections.

The Socialists, the biggest opposition party in parliament, won 36.7%. The ruling Social Democrats won 17% of the vote, according to the partial results. The Prime Minister assured that the government continues the policy of strict economy.

Today at 12:00 UTC+4 PMI Manufacturing in the Eurozone in September is published; it is expected to be 51.1. At 13:00 UTC+4 data on Unemployment rate in the Eurozone is issued. We do not consider that data may be better than expected. At 18:00 UTC+4 US ISM Manufacturing in September is issued, forecast 55.3 vs. 55.7.

Taking into account the circumstances, the situation is neutral; there are no prerequisites for the growth of the euro, there is no signal for the USD dollar rise. Thus, in the medium term we expect signal for the growth of the US dollar, which from the technical point of view, may be expressed in the break of trend line 1.3476.