11.10.201309:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Forecast for October 11, 2013

Data on Europe continues to be weak. Industrial Production in France in August grew 0.2% vs. forecast for 0.7%. Italy’s Industrial Production dropped 0.3% vs. forecast for 0.6%.

During yesterday’s speech, Mario Draghi tried to be neutral; however, amid weakening economic indicators he was forced to admit the perspectives of further deterioration of the economic situation. In the US the White House and the Congress have not come to an agreement yet. Republicans are ready to make some concessions. Today the talks continue. We suppose that data issued today has little importance.

From the technical point of view, on the H4, the triangle has been formed; its break to the upwards may lift the price to the range 1.3549/65. As far as agreement on the budget may be reached during the weekend, the investors possibly prefer to close the buys. We regard the alternative with the break of support of trend line on the H4 1.3497 and downward movement to 1.3452, the high of August 20 and lower to 1.3396, support on the daily time frame as the major scenario.