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Dark clouds are gathering over the US economy once again, with the threat of recession still looming large. It is a worrying development. Analysts are sounding the alarm, and market participants are holding their breath in tense anticipation. The unease is being fueled by a wave of new tariffs recently introduced by US President Donald Trump.
In this context, currency strategists at Goldman Sachs have raised the probability of a US recession to 35%, a figure that can hardly be dismissed. With odds like that, something must be done. But what, exactly, remains the question.
Goldman Sachs analysts recently revised their outlook on the likelihood of a recession in the United States. Previously, they had estimated the chance at 20%, but that has now jumped to 35%. The key drivers behind this shift are a sharp decline in business and consumer confidence, along with a growing expectation of short-term economic weakness largely attributed to the current actions of the US administration.
A recent CNBC survey also reflected rising fears of recession in the US, putting pressure on both consumer and business sentiment. Nearly 60% of chief financial officers are now preparing for a recession in the second half of 2025, while 15% expect it to arrive in 2026.
Published 04 April 2025
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