03.05.201908:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD for May 3, 2019

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bearish momentum after rejecting off the 1.13 area with a daily close. The euro has come under pressure due to the economic slowdown and mixed reports. Amid that, the US dollar managed to extend gains despite the recent Fed's dovish sentiment.

In the wake of the economic slowdown, Brexit uncertainty, and global trade challenges, the ECB has kept the interest rate unchanged. The bank's key deposit rate is at minus 0.40 percent and it is expected to remain at that level for some time given weak economic growth. Despite the recent downbeat economic reports, the ECB is still optimistic about the future economic development. The ECB officials expressed confidence in the euro area's brightening economic outlook, while hinting at differing preferences for the speed at which monetary policy should respond to recent improvements.

Today the EU CPI Flash Estimate is expected to show an increase to 1.6% from the previous value of 1.4% and the Core CPI Flash Estimate is also expected to increase to 1.0% from the previous value of 0.8%. Additionally, the EU PPI is expected to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.1%.

Ahead of the NFP report to be published today, certain volatility is expected in the EUR/USD pair. USD is expected to have an upper hand over EUR in the process. Today the US Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 181k from the previous figure of 196k. Besides, the Average Hourly Earnings is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1% and the Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.8%. Though analysts predict a decline in the employment change, the employer activity in April along with the solid economic growth are expected to have positive results. Recently, Fed Chairman Jeromy Powell described the current economic conditions of the US as stronger than expected while the inflation remained sluggish. Additionally, the US-China trade negotiations are still unsettled and due to the conflict in several sectors operating together, the rise in tariffs and involvement in the process are expected to keep the economy under pressure as the foreign trade is challenged at the current global economic scenario.

As of the current scenario, USD is expected to sustain the bearish momentum in the pair which is expected to turn further impulsive if the upcoming NFP reports provide positive results or else further consolidation and correction can be observed.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 1.1200 area which is expected to push the price further downward with target towards 1.1050 support area in the coming days. The price is expected to have consistent bearish momentum in the process. As the price remains below 1.1200 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue in this pair.