10.05.201800:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil can continue to grow actively

Weak fundamental data on industrial production in France exerted pressure on the European currency in the first half of the day, however, after updating the next monthly minimum, large sellers of risky assets did not support the market, which led to a slight upward correction at the beginning of the North American session on Wednesday, May 9.

Weak data on industrial production in France is likely to have a negative impact on GDP growth potential for the first quarter of this year, which generally corresponds to the overall picture of the recession that was observed throughout the eurozone in the first months of 2018.

According to the statistics agency, industrial production in France in March this year fell by 0.4% compared with February, while experts and economists, on the contrary, forecast growth of 0.2%. Data for February were revised downward. Initially, it was reported that industrial production in France increased by 1.2%, and the revised figure was 1.1%.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, an unsuccessful consolidation below the low of yesterday resulted in some profit taking by speculative players and an upward correction in the European currency. Now the main task of European currency is to break through the resistance level 1.1890, above which it was not possible to break during yesterday's tradlomg . Only this "setup" will allow to organize a larger growth of EURUSD and walk around the stop orders of major players above this range, with a stop in the resistance area of 1.1930 and 1.1970.

Today, the official website of the Ministry of Commerce of China published a message stating that the PRC authorities are ready to resume trade negotiations with the US and accept the invitation of US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Adviser to President Xi Jinping, Liu He, will soon arrive in the United States to continue negotiations on trade. The White House also confirmed that Liu He's visit to Washington is scheduled for next week.

It should be noted that the last official meeting with the US representatives did not yield any significant results.

In the second half of the day, traders' attention will be focused on data from the US Department of Energy on crude oil, distillers and gasoline reserves, which can support the oil market, which, following yesterday's statements by Donald Trump, continues to grow steadily.

It is expected that commercial oil reserves in the US remained at the same level. Some experts predict a slight change in stocks. Their estimates range from -3 million barrels to +3 million barrels.

If the data goes beyond these limits, in the direction of reducing stocks, this will further support the oil market, which is now updating the next monthly highs. WTI oil breaks the level at $71 per barrel, which could lead to new demand and the recovery of quotations already in the region of $77 per barrel. This is a new high since November 23, 2014.