08.02.201914:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Dollar puts the euro in check

The US dollar punished its critics for arrogance, soaring to the maximum level against the euro since the end of January. It was then that Mario Draghi puzzled the EUR/USD "bulls" with a message about conversations inside the Governing Council about the launch of LTRO. Then, the pair began to buy back in the hope of exhaustion of such growth drivers of the "American" amid divergences in monetary policy and economic growth, as well as trade wars. Further events showed that selling the dollar was too early.

If based on the results of 2018, the EUR/USD pair fell by more than 5% due to the aggressive monetary restriction of the Fed, accelerated under the influence of the fiscal stimulus of US GDP growth and demand for safe-haven assets during trade wars. In 2019 Reuters experts painted a different. The Federal Reserve will pause for a long time and the US economy will slow down under the influence of the fading effect of tax reform and the government's shutdown while Beijing and Washington will agree. As a result, the euro will end the year at $1.2 according to a median forecast of more than a hundred specialists. The problem is that the main pair can move as you like until December, including proset to 1.1-1.12. Some investors rushed to get rid of dollars in January and they were punished.

There are always two currencies in any pair and if the "American" lost last year's Trump cards, then this does not mean that he will fall. The euro looks weaker than before and the EU predicts a slowdown in GDP growth in the eurozone to 1.3% in 2019 compared with the Fed's expected expansion of the US economy by 2-2.5%. this figure casts doubt on the ability of the bulls to restore an upward trend in EUR/USD. Let the Fed stand on the sidelines but if the ECB starts to expand incentives through the long-term refinancing program, the euro will definitely go down.

Change in GDP forecasts for the eurozone countries

There is no certainty that the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing will be complete safely. Advisor to the President, Larry Kudlow, said that the parties are far from agreement, and Donald Trump does not plan to meet with Xi Jinping before March 1. Let me remind you that from March 2, the United States will increase the tariff on $ 200 billion to Chinese imports from 10% to 25% and earlier, the White House owner argued that the agreement could be signed only by the presidents. In addition, having dealt with China, there are fears that the US will take on the European Union, which will be even more painful for European exports.

Yet to sprinkle ashes on your head with the bulls on EUR / USD is not worth it. Surely, in the near future, American macroeconomic statistics under the influence of bad weather and government shutdowns will begin to deteriorate, which again will return to the markets talk of a recession and the need to reduce the federal funds rate.

Technically, the consolidation of EUR/USD pair in the range of 1.1265-1.1485 continues. The breakthrough of support levels at 1.129 and 1.1265 triggers the "Perfect Butterfly" pattern with a target of 127.2%. To save intrigue "bulls", it must return quotes above 1.1355.

EUR / USD daily chart